Trade and Development Seminar with Ben Zissimos (Exeter)

Ben Zissimos (Exeter) will present his paper “Dictators Under The Weather.”

Abstract  We show how and when dictatorships are able to use international trade policy to forestall democratization in the face of weather shocks. Our model shows when a domestic weather shock creates the threat of a revolution. Under a ‘mild’ weather shock, the dictatorship are able to defuse the threat of revolution by setting a ‘status quo policy’. Under a ‘severe’ weather shock, the dictatorship face a commitment problem: they must democratize in order to defuse the threat of revolution. Using a dataset of Sub-Saharan African countries, we find econometric results that are consistent with the predictions of our model.

The seminar will be in person. 

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