Forecasting with Neil Ericsson (FRB, GWU, SAIS), Kaythari Maw (Cornell), Fabian Leal (University of Florida)

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the most abrupt changes in U.S. labor force participation and unemployment since the Second World War, with consequences differing by gender, age group, and ethnicity. We model the U.S. labor market to help to interpret the pandemic's effects. Specifically, we formulate joint dynamic models of disaggregated unemployment and labor force participation rates for 1980--2019. We then use those models to forecast into the pandemic to understand the pandemic's labor market consequences, treating those forecasts as being from an alternative scenario in which the pandemic didn't occur. Heterogeneity across gender, age, and ethnicity is particularly prominent at the pandemic's outset. Lower labor force participation persists among many subgroups.

The serminar will be In-Person.

Please sign up for our seminars listserv to receive the details.